Weekend storm update
Let’s talk about the weekend storm.
Unlike last weekend’s storm, there is still a lot of uncertainty with this one. We are still watching the models for trending analysis and still making comparisons with current weather and past tracks to make a determination.
What we do know:
- There will be a strong coastal storm this weekend.
- Likely timing is between late Saturday night and Monday morning.
- There will be snow and wind
- Strong wind gusts along the coast
What we do not know:
- Track
- Potential snow accumulation
- Maximum wind gust potential
Breaking it down a bit, I have included a map of some of the top long to mid range forecast models showing the current potential tracks as well as line over the land area showing how far inland accumulating snow is likely to extend with each track.
The EURO being the typical front runner for New England storms, and my personal favorite for longer range assessments, has been showing a westward track trend. It went from well out to sea to coming inland much farther than it was over the last 4 model runs.
This track would bring heavy snow, potentially in the 2 foot range for much of metro Boston, Cape Cod, the Islands, eastern Mass, and Rhode Island, with moderate snowfall along the Maine coast and in towards the NH/VT border. This also brings storm force winds for the Cape and coastal areas in the 70mph range, nearing Cat 1 hurricane strength.
The GFS is showing more of an out to sea approach with moderate snowfall for the Cape and Islands, but that cuts down dramatically the farther inland you go with barely a dusting for the metro Boston area. This would bring moderate wind gusts to the coast and 20-30mph gusts farther inland.
The Icon model is almost completely out to sea with any moderate to significant impact primarily for eastern Canada and the Canadian Maritimes.
The Canadian model looks like it was vacationing in Florida and decided to head home, but then remembered it owes a lot of back taxes to the Canadian government, so it’s heading to Europe. Bon voyage, bis spader, adios.
So... still a lot to look at and comb through before we start making any forecasts in regard to this event. Maybe we’ll know more tonight? Maybe it won’t be until tomorrow? Maybe it won’t be until Friday. With the last storm, we were able to come up with a forecast pretty reasonably early because ALL the models came together. This time, not so much. We will definitely know more by the time the shorter range models like the NAM catch on.