Hurricane Lee Update

Issued Wednesday Morning

Overnight modeling showed a complete westward trend which as of this morning's NHC advisory, they also agree with. While the spaghetti models do not show this trend west, I do believe that the "human factor" of the NHC is looking at this the same way I am.

This is NOT the storm of the century. This is not likely to make landfall as a hurricane. We are likely to see tropical storm force winds and conditions from this. We are likely to see hurricane conditions over the open ocean right up until Lee is entering the New England waters. As it enters the Gulf of Maine, it is expected to downgrade significantly.

So, what does the westward trend mean? Well, this is along the lines of yesterday morning's update with the possible track #2, only more west. We are looking at the potential for heavy rain along the coast and points inland, especially Cape Cod, the islands, and most of Maine. This is a coastal storm and the farther away from the immediate coast you go, the less of the affects you are going to receive.
Wind gusts upwards of 90mph are possible with this current track, along Cape Cod and the Islands. Gusts of 60-70mph are likely along the majority of the rest of the east facing New England coast.

Sharing my personal thoughts that I have been holding back for a few days now. As I mentioned in conversation with a few people last night both in comments on my evening post, and in some direct messages, I have been watching a New England impact from the beginning, and here is why. I was involved in a briefing yesterday with a few others in the weather field, and a very important point was brought up that contradicts all the models and what all the big-time, prime time media personalities have been saying.
History... Recent history has shown that storm systems with the same/similar set ups as Lee, have all tracked west in the end. Henri, Isaias, and a handful of others. Tracks 5 days out have all been straight in or have had an eastward list, but as the track closed in closer to landfall, they all veered west between a weakening trough and a building ridge. Science and history come together to prove a theory.
We have been saying it for a week now. Wait until Wednesday when it starts to straighten out and head north, and we will see how the models capture it. Sure enough, first thing this morning I pull my phone out and check the models as well as the NHC advisory, and low and behold there it is, the westward shift. Not just a slight shift, a dramatic shift compared to the same time yesterday.
Now, I have to follow this up with the proverbial "it's still early and anything could happen", but, if I was a betting man, I would almost put money on this track.
So, there you have it, my personal opinion based solely on what my gut thinks is going to happen, as proven by current science and data. That is what a lot of people have been waiting for.